Dark clouds of climate threats have gathered over Africa, leaving the continent’s nations — especially the most vulnerable and impoverished, and those affected by internal conflicts and unable to manage risks — facing mounting dangers and shocks from climate change, despite contributing the least greenhouse gas emissions compared to other continents.
In addition to the naturally high temperatures in African countries due to their geographic location — especially the poorest nations around the equator — which have been rising further because of global warming, recent years have witnessed an increase in natural disasters and extreme weather events across Africa, driven by climate change. These events range from floods and droughts to storms, often followed by the displacement of affected populations, at rates surpassing those in other regions.
Climate projections indicate that average temperatures across African nations in the coming years will rise above normal levels, at about four times the global average rate. This raises the alarm over greater risks to public health, alongside severe damage to agricultural and industrial economic output in key sectors such as farming and construction.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that cumulative GDP losses in the most fragile countries could reach around 4% within three years of severe climate events, compared to just 1% in other countries.
Similarly, the African Development Bank warns that increasing drought risks across the continent could reduce per capita GDP growth by around 0.2% annually — which in turn means a significant decline in income, particularly for Africa’s most vulnerable and impoverished nations compared to others.
One of the key outcomes of COP28 for African nations was the launch of a project to rehabilitate one million hectares of degraded land, along with providing water, sanitation, and healthcare services to around 18 million people, and renewable energy to nearly 10 million people.
Climate shocks are compounding the severity of conflict and hunger crises in African countries, further undermining their economies and people’s well-being. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), conflict-related deaths — as a share of the population — could increase by almost 10% in fragile African states by 2060. Climate change could also drive an additional 50 million people in vulnerable African nations into fatal hunger by that year.
Losses in these fragile African economies are expected to rise amid intensifying climate crises, particularly as most of these countries depend on basic rain-fed agriculture, which accounts for roughly 25% of their economic output. The vast majority of farmland relies on rainfall, making it highly vulnerable to droughts and floods. Where irrigation infrastructure exists, it is often weak, rudimentary, and at risk of collapse under flood pressure or due to conflict, as seen in Mali and Sudan.
These risks have pushed African nations to recognize the urgent threat of climate change, leading them to propose a global carbon tax system in the “Nairobi Declaration,” issued at the end of the African Climate Summit in Kenya last September. They also called on the world’s major polluting nations to allocate more resources to assist poorer countries. Despite being the most exposed continent to climate impacts, Africa receives only about 12% of the estimated $300 billion it needs annually to address climate change.
The 2023 UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) reaffirmed Africa’s right to adequate support from the nations and economies most responsible for climate change, to help its fragile economies adapt and mitigate the impacts.
COP28’s key contributions to Africa include rehabilitating one million hectares of degraded land, providing water, sanitation, and health services to about 18 million people, and delivering renewable energy to nearly 10 million people — alongside promoting green investment, enhancing integrated soil fertility management, and expanding solar-powered irrigation.
