{"id":13863,"date":"2024-06-05T13:32:13","date_gmt":"2024-06-05T13:32:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/lebanon-from-stop-counting-to-start-over-whats-the-solution-to-the-governance-dilemma\/"},"modified":"2025-08-21T18:00:35","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T18:00:35","slug":"lebanon-from-stop-counting-to-start-over-whats-the-solution-to-the-governance-dilemma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/en\/lebanon-from-stop-counting-to-start-over-whats-the-solution-to-the-governance-dilemma\/","title":{"rendered":"Lebanon: From \u2018Stop Counting\u2019 to \u2018Start Over\u2019\u2026 What\u2019s the Solution to the Governance Dilemma?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

When Hezbollah\u2019s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah declared in his latest speech<\/a> that \u201ceither we resume counting, or everyone should recognize their actual size,\u201d his words sparked outrage across Lebanon, particularly among Christians.But what if we were to argue that Nasrallah wasn\u2019t entirely wrong? <\/strong>On April 13, 1975, a Lebanese faction fired the first shot, triggering the civil war. Had that faction won the war, its goals would likely have been imposed as a reality\u2014its \u201cnatural right.\u201dHowever, in 1990, the war ended with the Taif Agreement. Although the balance of power then leaned toward Muslims, equal power-sharing between Christians and Muslims became the formula that most Lebanese eventually accepted, regardless of sect.<\/strong>Since then, Lebanon has operated under a confessional power-sharing system viewed at the time as a temporary compromise, not a sustainable solution.<\/strong>Still, it was the best available formula to end a 15-year destructive conflict that pit different factions against each other.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n

The country is still governed by a power-sharing system between Christians and Muslims\u2014a framework that was originally seen as a temporary fix, not a long-term solution. Yet, at the time, it was considered the best possible arrangement to end a devastating conflict that had pitted various factions against one another and lasted 15 years.    <\/pre>\n\n
As the Lebanese proverb goes: \u201cWhat works for you today may work against you tomorrow.\u201dThis saying perfectly captures Lebanon\u2019s current reality.<\/strong>Christians, once a clear majority who ruled Lebanon under a system that marginalized Muslims until 1989, now live in an era where Muslims are numerically dominant\u2014yet power remains equally divided.But what about tomorrow?Whether Christians represent 19%<\/a> or 34%, the numbers point in one direction: steady demographic decline.This shift has ignited fierce debates about Lebanon\u2019s future.For many Christians, federalism or even partition\u2014two sides of the same coin in Lebanon\u2019s context\u2014offer a sense of security.Muslims, on the other hand, insist on maintaining parity but argue that true democracy would be the fairest solution: \u201cLet whoever wins, rule.\u201d<\/strong>Thus, Lebanon remains trapped in a political tug-of-war, with neither side willing to concede ground.                       <\/p>\n\n
So, what\u2019s the solution to this governance dilemma?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n
It is clear that the Christian community\u2019s fear for its future has placed it in a dilemma. If it calls for partition or federalism, such proposals would be highly provocative.     <\/strong>. <\/strong>\u2026especially for Muslims. And if Muslims, in turn, were to call for a truly democratic system, Christians would inevitably pay the price due to demographic realities.<\/strong> \u201cFederalism cannot be implemented solely through Christian voices, primarily Maronite<\/a> ones. To achieve any measure of success, the structural issues currently posing significant barriers must first be addressed, alongside comprehensive collective efforts. In the absence of a cross-sectarian consensus in support of federalism, there can be no expectation of maintaining power-sharing or preserving peace between sectarian cantons functioning independently from one another. As currently proposed, federalism is a recipe for renewed civil strife, as Lebanon\u2019s history has repeatedly shown us.\u201dThus, the only viable solution lies in maintaining the status quo\u2014keeping the existing power-sharing system as it is. Christians, therefore, should accept the political arrangement they currently benefit from, one that Muslims also insist upon, and approach sensitive issues with greater pragmatism. After all, constant bickering between partners only leads to divorce and the collapse of the household. So, would Christians be willing to trigger that divorce, while Muslims aim to maintain a \u201cMaronite marriage\u201d with no option of separation?<\/strong>Christians must also recognize that the current governing formula is the very framework that guarantees their continued presence in the country. At the same time, they need to understand that declining demographics work against their long-term influence, potentially tipping the balance politically, socially, and economically, and eventually providing their partners in Lebanon with a legitimate argument to demand a new political formula\u2014one that better reflects shifting realities.As for Christian political parties and the Church, they must set aside their internal rivalries and prioritize the future of the Lebanese Christian community, which increasingly contemplates emigration out of despair over the country’s deteriorating state. They must understand that no one can safeguard their existence more than themselves. Sunnis, Druze, and Shiites may respect and appreciate Christians, but not more than they value their own interests.<\/strong>And if Hassan Nasrallah referred to the \u201ccounting\u201d that was once halted by the late Rafic Hariri, who\u2019s to say Hariri himself wouldn\u2019t have declared, \u201cLet\u2019s resume the count\u201d, had he been alive today?<\/strong>                                         <\/strong><\/p>\n\n
This article does not necessarily reflect the views of the website.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
When Hezbollah\u2019s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah declared in his latest speech that \u201ceither we resume counting, or everyone should recognize their actual size,\u201d his words sparked outrage across Lebanon, particularly among Christians.But what if we were to argue that Nasrallah wasn\u2019t entirely wrong? On April 13, 1975, a Lebanese faction fired the first shot, triggering the civil war. Had that faction won the war, its goals would likely have been imposed as a reality\u2014its \u201cnatural right.\u201dHowever, in 1990, the war ended with the Taif Agreement. Although the balance of power then leaned toward Muslims, equal power-sharing between Christians and Muslims became the formula that most Lebanese eventually accepted, regardless of sect.Since then, Lebanon has operated under a confessional power-sharing system viewed at the time as a temporary compromise, not a sustainable solution.Still, it was the best available formula to end a 15-year destructive conflict that pit different factions against each other. The country is still governed by a power-sharing system between Christians and Muslims\u2014a framework that was originally seen as a temporary fix, not a long-term solution. Yet, at the time, it was considered the best possible arrangement to end a devastating conflict that had pitted various factions against one another and lasted 15 years. As the Lebanese proverb goes: \u201cWhat works for you today may work against you tomorrow.\u201dThis saying perfectly captures Lebanon\u2019s current reality.Christians, once a clear majority who ruled Lebanon under a system that marginalized Muslims until 1989, now live in an era where Muslims are numerically dominant\u2014yet power remains equally divided.But what about tomorrow?Whether Christians represent 19% or 34%, the numbers point in one direction: steady demographic decline.This shift has ignited fierce debates about Lebanon\u2019s future.For many Christians, federalism or even partition\u2014two sides of the same coin in Lebanon\u2019s context\u2014offer a sense of security.Muslims, on the other hand, insist on maintaining parity but argue that true democracy would be the fairest solution: \u201cLet whoever wins, rule.\u201dThus, Lebanon remains trapped in a political tug-of-war, with neither side willing to concede ground. So, what\u2019s the solution to this governance dilemma? It is clear that the Christian community\u2019s fear for its future has placed it in a dilemma. If it calls for partition or federalism, such proposals would be highly provocative. . \u2026especially for Muslims. And if Muslims, in turn, were to call for a truly democratic system, Christians would inevitably pay the price due to demographic realities. \u201cFederalism cannot be implemented solely through Christian voices, primarily Maronite ones. To achieve any measure of success, the structural issues currently posing significant barriers must first be addressed, alongside comprehensive collective efforts. In the absence of a cross-sectarian consensus in support of federalism, there can be no expectation of maintaining power-sharing or preserving peace between sectarian cantons functioning independently from one another. As currently proposed, federalism is a recipe for renewed civil strife, as Lebanon\u2019s history has repeatedly shown us.\u201dThus, the only viable solution lies in maintaining the status quo\u2014keeping the existing power-sharing system as it is. Christians, therefore, should accept the political arrangement they currently benefit from, one that Muslims also insist upon, and approach sensitive issues with greater pragmatism. After all, constant bickering between partners only leads to divorce and the collapse of the household. So, would Christians be willing to trigger that divorce, while Muslims aim to maintain a \u201cMaronite marriage\u201d with no option of separation?Christians must also recognize that the current governing formula is the very framework that guarantees their continued presence in the country. At the same time, they need to understand that declining demographics work against their long-term influence, potentially tipping the balance politically, socially, and economically, and eventually providing their partners in Lebanon with a legitimate argument to demand a new political formula\u2014one that better reflects shifting realities.As for Christian political parties and the Church, they must set aside their internal rivalries and prioritize the future of the Lebanese Christian community, which increasingly contemplates emigration out of despair over the country’s deteriorating state. They must understand that no one can safeguard their existence more than themselves. Sunnis, Druze, and Shiites may respect and appreciate Christians, but not more than they value their own interests.And if Hassan Nasrallah referred to the \u201ccounting\u201d that was once halted by the late Rafic Hariri, who\u2019s to say Hariri himself wouldn\u2019t have declared, \u201cLet\u2019s resume the count\u201d, had he been alive today? This article does not necessarily reflect the views of the website.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":12138,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[340,339,390,502],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13863","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","category-opinion","category-politics","category-the-south-is-changing"],"blocksy_meta":[],"acf":[],"rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646-\u0645\u0646-\u0648\u0641\u0642\u0646\u0627-\u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f-\u0625\u0644\u0649-\u0645\u0646\u0631\u062c\u0639-\u0645\u0646\u0639\u062f\u2026-\u0645\u0627-\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644-\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0636\u0644\u0629-\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0645\u061f.webp",1620,712,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646-\u0645\u0646-\u0648\u0641\u0642\u0646\u0627-\u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f-\u0625\u0644\u0649-\u0645\u0646\u0631\u062c\u0639-\u0645\u0646\u0639\u062f\u2026-\u0645\u0627-\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644-\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0636\u0644\u0629-\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0645\u061f.webp",1620,712,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646-\u0645\u0646-\u0648\u0641\u0642\u0646\u0627-\u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f-\u0625\u0644\u0649-\u0645\u0646\u0631\u062c\u0639-\u0645\u0646\u0639\u062f\u2026-\u0645\u0627-\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644-\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0636\u0644\u0629-\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0645\u061f.webp",1620,712,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646-\u0645\u0646-\u0648\u0641\u0642\u0646\u0627-\u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f-\u0625\u0644\u0649-\u0645\u0646\u0631\u062c\u0639-\u0645\u0646\u0639\u062f\u2026-\u0645\u0627-\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644-\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0636\u0644\u0629-\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0645\u061f-150x150.webp",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646-\u0645\u0646-\u0648\u0641\u0642\u0646\u0627-\u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f-\u0625\u0644\u0649-\u0645\u0646\u0631\u062c\u0639-\u0645\u0646\u0639\u062f\u2026-\u0645\u0627-\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644-\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0636\u0644\u0629-\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0645\u061f-300x132.webp",300,132,true],"large":["https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646-\u0645\u0646-\u0648\u0641\u0642\u0646\u0627-\u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f-\u0625\u0644\u0649-\u0645\u0646\u0631\u062c\u0639-\u0645\u0646\u0639\u062f\u2026-\u0645\u0627-\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644-\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0636\u0644\u0629-\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0645\u061f-1024x450.webp",1024,450,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646-\u0645\u0646-\u0648\u0641\u0642\u0646\u0627-\u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f-\u0625\u0644\u0649-\u0645\u0646\u0631\u062c\u0639-\u0645\u0646\u0639\u062f\u2026-\u0645\u0627-\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644-\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0636\u0644\u0629-\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0645\u061f-1536x675.webp",1536,675,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646-\u0645\u0646-\u0648\u0641\u0642\u0646\u0627-\u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f-\u0625\u0644\u0649-\u0645\u0646\u0631\u062c\u0639-\u0645\u0646\u0639\u062f\u2026-\u0645\u0627-\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644-\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0636\u0644\u0629-\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0645\u061f.webp",1620,712,false]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"\u0628\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0646\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646","author_link":"https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/en\/author\/bilal-noureddine\/"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"Blog<\/a> Opinion<\/a> Politics<\/a> The South Is Changing<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"When Hezbollah\u2019s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah declared in his latest speech that \u201ceither we resume counting, or everyone should recognize their actual size,\u201d his words sparked outrage across Lebanon, particularly among Christians.But what if we were to argue that Nasrallah wasn\u2019t entirely wrong? On April 13, 1975, a Lebanese faction fired the first shot, triggering the…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13863","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13863"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13863\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12138"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13863"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13863"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/silatwassel.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13863"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}